Will we run out of rare earth magnets?

As we accelerate toward a future powered by electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy, a haunting question often surfaces in the tech and industrial sectors: Will we run out of rare earth magnets?

If you have looked at the headlines recently, the outlook can seem dire. These powerful components are the "secret sauce" inside everything from your smartphone’s vibration motor to the massive generators in offshore wind turbines. Without rare earth magnets, the global transition to green energy could grind to a halt.

But are we truly facing an "extinction" of these materials, or is the reality more complex? Let’s dive into the science, the supply chain, and the innovations shaping the future of magnetism.

The Paradox of "Rare" Earths

The first thing to understand is that "rare earth" elements—the primary ingredients in rare earth magnets—are not actually that rare.

Elements like Neodymium (Nd) and Praseodymium (Pr) are more abundant in the Earth’s crust than precious metals like silver or gold. The "rare" label actually refers to the fact that these elements are rarely found in large, concentrated clusters. Instead, they are scattered thinly across the globe, mixed with other minerals, making them difficult and expensive to extract.

While the geological supply is technically sufficient for centuries, the challenge lies in the processing capacity. As of 2025, the world still relies heavily on a single geographical region for refining these ores into the high-purity metals needed for manufacturing.

The Geopolitical Bottleneck

If we "run out" of rare earth magnets in the near term, it won't be because the Earth is empty. It will be because of supply chain disruptions. Recent years have seen a surge in export controls and trade tensions that have made the market highly volatile.

Manufacturing Concentration: Roughly 90% of the world's rare earth magnets are currently produced in China.

Export Restrictions: In 2025, new licensing requirements for heavy rare earths like Dysprosium and Terbium have caused temporary price spikes, forcing Western manufacturers to scramble for alternatives.

The Lead-Time Gap: Opening a new mine and a corresponding refinery can take 10 to 15 years. This "temporal gap" is the real risk—demand is growing faster than our ability to build new factories.

Innovation to the Rescue: Substitution and Recycling

The fear of a shortage is driving a massive wave of innovation. Engineers are no longer just asking "Where can we find more?" but "How can we use less?"

1. Grain Boundary Diffusion

This is a high-tech manufacturing process that allows engineers to place heavy rare earth elements only where they are most needed (on the edges of the magnet's grains) rather than throughout the entire material. This can reduce the need for scarce elements like Dysprosium by up to 70% without losing magnetic performance.

2. Rare-Earth-Free Motors

Tesla and other major EV manufacturers are already designing motors that use "ferrite" magnets or "externally excited" rotors that don't require rare earth magnets at all. While these are currently less efficient for high-performance applications, they provide a vital "safety valve" if supply becomes too tight.

3. The "Urban Mine" (Recycling)

In 2025, recycling accounts for less than 5% of the global supply. However, new technologies like Hydrogen Processing of Magnetic Scrap (HPMS) are changing the game. This process uses hydrogen gas to "burst" old magnets into a powder that can be directly re-pressed into new ones, bypassing the toxic chemical baths of traditional recycling.

The Verdict: Will We Run Out?

The short answer is no, we will not run out of the raw materials. However, we are entering a decade of structural scarcity.

We may see periods where the "on-the-shelf" availability of rare earth magnets drops, causing prices to swing wildly. But this very scarcity is what is funding the next generation of mines in Australia, Vietnam, and North America, as well as the AI-driven recycling plants of the future.

The future of rare earth magnets isn't about running out; it’s about a global shift toward a more diverse, circular, and resilient supply chain.